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分析：人民币无望近期升值
发布时间：2009-11-03
点击数：1629
“美国人得到了玩具，中国人得到了美国国债，而我们则遭殃了。”一名欧盟(EU)官员曾这样描述中国出售人民币以换取美元、从而积累美国资产的模式，同时没有什么能够遏制欧元快速且破坏稳定的升值。
正是这一例行的做法，导致美国产生巨额经常账户赤字，而（包括中国在内）的大部分东亚国家、欧洲部分国家以及中东石油出口国产生相应规模的盈余。在使全球经济重新恢复平衡、将消费负担转移至盈余国家这一被美联储(Fed)主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)最近称为“极其紧迫”的任务中，汇率的改变几乎肯定是其中的必要组成部分。
但迄今为止，中国和大多数东亚国家（不包括日本）都几乎没有出现允许本国货币大幅升值的迹象。而其它新兴市场近期的经历，可能使它们更不愿意这么做。
咨询公司Capital Economics的国际经济学家马克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示：“东亚已经出现了兑美元的小幅升值，但帮助不大，人民币才是房间里的大象。”
近几周，包括泰国、马来西亚、韩国在内的一批国家已经口头干预或进入外汇市场干预，试图放缓本国货币的升值速度。
近几周，包括泰国、马来西亚、韩国在内的一批国家已经口头干预或进入外汇市场干预，试图放缓本国货币的升值速度。
威廉姆斯猜测，明年年中前，中国政府不会允许人民币兑美元恢复升值。中国政府在允许人民币上浮了几年之后，于去年7月份又重新将人民币与美元挂钩。
渣打银行(Standard Chartered)首席经济学家杰拉德•莱昂斯(Gerard Lyons)表示：“为了推动恢复平衡的过程，我们非常需要中东和东亚这两大盈余地区的汇率灵活性。但这可能会来得比较晚。”
莱昂斯表示，在以前的经济周期中，东亚的出口与商业信心似乎表现出了很强的相关性，这使得政策制定者不愿放任本国货币升值，从而令出口处于竞争劣势。
使全球经济重新恢复平衡这一任务，从来不可能在圣诞节前完成，也不是将国内需求从美国转移至中国这么简单。正如国际货币基金组织(IMF)在其最新的《世界经济展望》中所指出的，中国的消费仅相当于美国和那些拥有巨额经常账户赤字的欧洲国家总消费的四分之一左右。
此外，德国和日本等贸易盈余富国对恢复平衡的贡献将是有限的，因为它们日益老龄化的人口需要进行储蓄为退休做准备。它们的货币兑美元已经升值。国际货币基金组织表示：“要想在中期维持稳定的全球增长，恢复平衡的过程必须纳入各新兴经济体。”
不过，整个发展中世界已经感觉到中国汇率的影响，因为许多其它发展中国家害怕来自中国廉价出口的竞争。兑美元升值就是兑人民币升值。
这一担忧现在正在其它一些新兴市场国家上演，尤其是巴西等大宗商品出口国。
不断上升的大宗商品价格已经推高了出口额和汇率，并吸引资金流入了股市。今年，巴西的股市已经上涨逾70%。上周，巴西对外国资本流入重新征税，并表示此举是为了放缓投机资金导致的雷亚尔升值。
莱昂斯表示，东亚各国担心让同样的事情发生在他们身上。他表示：“他们担心，如果他们任由汇率上升，将会吸引大量热钱，但那将重创信心。”
不过，除非这个复杂的舞蹈有一个圆满结局，否则，全球汇率似乎不太可能在解决全球失衡方面发挥作用，而这些失衡继续威胁着经济复苏。（FT中文网）
Renminbi at heart of world trade imbalances
“The Americans get the toys, the Chinese get the Treasuries and we get screwed.” Thus a European Union official once characterised the pattern of Beijing accumulating US assets by selling renminbis for dollars, while nothing stood in the way of a rapid and destabilising appreciation of the euro.
It was this routine that led to the US running a huge current account deficit with counterpart surpluses in much of east Asia (including China) and parts of Europe, and among the oil exporters of the Middle East. A shift in exchange rates is almost certainly a necessary part of rebalancing the world economy, shifting the burden of consumption towards those surplus areas – a task that Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, recently called “extraordinarily urgent”.
But as yet, there is little sign of either China or most east Asian countries (except Japan) allowing their currencies to appreciate substantially. And the recent experience of other emerging markets is likely to make them yet more reluctant.
“In east Asia there has been a bit of appreciation against the dollar which helps at the margin, but the elephant in the room is the renminbi,” says Mark Williams, international economist at the consultancy Capital Economics.
A string of countries including Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea have intervened either verbally or in the foreign exchange markets in recent weeks to slow the rise of their currencies.
Mr Williams suspects that the Chinese currency, which was repegged against the dollar in July last year after being allowed to drift upwards for a few years, will not be permitted to resume appreciating against the greenback before the middle of next year.
Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered bank, says: “To help rebalancing, we really need currency flexibility in the two big surplus areas – the Middle East and east Asia. But that is likely to come later rather than sooner.”
Mr Lyons says that in previous economic cycles, there appeared to be a strong correlation between exports and business confidence in east Asia, leaving policymakers reluctant to put exports at a competitive disadvantage by allowing currency appreciation.
Rebalancing the global economy was never going to be done by Christmas, and nor is it a simple question of domestic demand shifting from the US to China. As the International Monetary Fund pointed out in its most recent world economic outlook, China's consumption is equal to only about a quarter of total consumption in the US and in those European countries with large current account deficits.
And the scope for rich countries in trade surplus such as Germany and Japan – whose currency has risen against the dollar – to contribute to the rebalancing is limited, as their ageing populations save for retirement. “Rebalancing must involve a broad range of emerging economies if solid global growth is to be sustained over the medium term,” the IMF said.
Yet the effect of the Chinese exchange rate is felt across the developing world, since many other developing countries are terrified of competition from low-cost Chinese exports. A rise against the dollar is a rise against the renminbi.
That very concern is currently being played out in some other emerging market nations, notably commodity exporters such as Brazil.
Rising commodity prices have pushed up the value of exports and the exchange rate and attracted money into the equity market, which has risen by more than 70 per cent this year. Last week Brazil reimposed a tax on inflows of foreign capital, in what it said was an attempt to slow the appreciation in the real caused by speculative money.
Mr Lyons says that the east Asians are wary of allowing the same to happen to them. “There is a concern that if they let the exchange rate rise, it will attract a lot of hot money but hit confidence,” he says.
Yet until this complex dance is resolved, it seems unlikely that global exchange rates are going to play their part in undoing the imbalances that continue to threaten economic recovery.